Four services built on one analytical method. Additional Coverage extends any engagement to another country, sector or issue, and each proposal defines geography, reporting cadence and service hours.
Focused monitoring and early warning on one country, actor or strategic issue.
Regional intelligence and scenarios across connected developments, actors and domains.
The consequences of geopolitical change for financial, commercial or operational decisions, read across assets and portfolios, routes and supply chains, countries and counterparties, and operating continuity.
Delivered from a segregated, permitted commercial source pool, established for each mandate before delivery begins.
Request a briefingDesign, implementation and continuing support for an institution's own intelligence capability.
AURORAH issues its intelligence in two principal estimate formats. Each opens with its reference, date and derivation, states the judgement plainly and sets out the reasoning behind it.
Issued when a material change is detected
What it containsWhat has changed, AURORAH's assessed outlook, the confidence attached to it and the indicators that would change the view.
StructureReference and control block · Release note · Assessment · Estimate
Issued when a question needs fuller analysis
What it containsThe context, the competing explanations tested, AURORAH's judgement and confidence, and the implications for the client.
StructureScene setter · Operational context · Assessment · Strategic estimate
Redacted examples are available to qualified prospective clients on request.
Escalation warning, regional scenarios, resilience and independent challenge
Is this activity signalling, or preparation for action?
Infrastructure, supply routes, chokepoints and sanctions exposure
What is the risk to our routes through Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb over the next 30 days?
Country, sovereign, currency, energy and political-risk implications
Which scenario would change our sovereign or energy exposure, and what would signal it?
Forward-looking political violence, war, marine, energy and supply-chain exposure
Should war, political violence or marine terms change before the next renewal?
Market entry, capital allocation, security and operational risk
Is now the right time to commit capital, people or assets to this market?
Managed intelligence is the proposed starting engagement. Dedicated, customer-hosted and air-gapped deployments can be assessed separately where the client's security needs, infrastructure, procurement and accreditation requirements justify them.
AURORAH runs the service and delivers the agreed estimates, alerts and briefings. The client operates nothing.
Scoped implementation options for the most sensitive programmes, subject to approved design, third-party rights, costing, and technical and security feasibility.
Permitted sources, access, data handling, retention and client separation are defined before delivery begins.
Intelligence products follow senior analytical review and documented quality-assurance standards. Named reviewers, escalation and delivery responsibilities are defined for each engagement.
Start with one defined priority intelligence requirement. A scoped 8–10-week WATCH pilot establishes a baseline, monitors agreed indicators and delivers every relevant estimate and flash alert issued on the requirement, followed by a concluding executive review. Final entitlements and security arrangements are confirmed in the proposal.
Agree the decision, geography, audience, security parameters and reporting cadence.
Document the starting assessment, source access and the indicators to monitor.
Issue every relevant estimate and flash alert on the requirement, with every change and uncertainty recorded.
Test the service against the client's decision, then agree whether and how to continue.
Entitlements follow the current AURORAH Services document and are confirmed in each proposal.
The first stepA working session to define your priority question. We then propose the coverage, outputs, security model and pilot terms. Contact us