Continuous strategic warning

AURORAH combines multi-source intelligence and experienced human judgement to identify material change, explain its consequences and support decisions while options remain open.

Discuss your requirements Explore a WATCH pilot

WatchThe strategic environment, continuously

DetectThe change that alters the outlook

ExplainWhat it means for your decision

Dated recordAssessments written during the 2026 Iran war, compared with what happened next Before the First StrikeHelion & Company · forthcoming, autumn 2026 LeadershipIntelligence research and GCC risk leadership

Who we helpFor sovereign institutions, critical infrastructure operators and organisations exposed to geopolitical and security risk, AURORAH delivers continuing strategic monitoring, warning and decision-focused assessment.

The challenge

Leaders are not short of information. They are short of warning they can act on.

Signals arrive in fragments

Imagery, maritime and air movements, official statements, local reporting and social media sit in separate systems. Connections are made late, or not at all.

Volume hides the change that matters

Alerting services report events as they happen. They rarely say which events alter the outlook, and which are noise.

Judgement arrives after the decision window

Periodic reports describe what has happened. Leadership needs to know what is likely next, and what to prepare before it does.

Our proposition

We watch the strategic environment, detect material change and explain what it means for your organisation

STEP 1

Establish the baseline

Agree the decision question, relevant actors and observable indicators before conditions change.

STEP 2

Identify material change

Assess relevant developments across permitted sources, test competing explanations and recognise departures from the baseline.

STEP 3

Explain what comes next

Provide reasoned assessments, confidence and decision triggers, with accountable human analytical review.

Our approach and method

Solutions

Four ways to work with AURORAH

WATCHFocused warning against one defined country, actor or priority question.A leadership team with one priority exposure HORIZONPersistent regional intelligence and scenario analysis across connected developments.Organisations operating across the region IMPACTGeopolitical developments translated into commercial, financial and operational consequences.Investors, insurers, energy and shipping SOVEREIGNDesign, implementation and continuing support of an institutional intelligence capability.Governments building their own capability

Evidence

A preserved record of assessments made while events unfolded

AURORAH preserves dated assessments and evaluates them alongside the public record. We distinguish when an assessment was written, what was publicly known and what subsequent reporting can, and cannot, confirm.

Featured case

Final-phase strike preparations

Memorandum 1 · issued 27 Feb 2026, 15:52 UK

Original assessment

A high-confidence assessment that actors were in the final phase of preparation for a potential limited initial strike against designated military and security targets in Iran.

What followed

Large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets began the next day, 28 February 2026.

Limits

The assessment concerned the timing and character of preparations, not whether conflict would ever occur. Sources and full limitations are set out on the case page.

See all three case studies

Leadership

Intelligence authority and commercial risk leadership

Dr Nawaf ObaidFounder, Executive Chairman & Chief Intelligence OfficerIntelligence methodology, strategic assessment, academic research and sovereign relationships. Rawny KhadrChief Executive OfficerCommercial strategy, international risk, company development and institutional partnerships.

Leadership in the mediaResearch & Media

Quoted in reporting · Associated PressRussian satellites help Iran’s allies strike Saudi Arabia, data and officials say27 Oct 2026AP reports AURORAH GeoSignal Intelligence’s analysis of Russian satellite activity over Saudi target areas before and after attacks, and quotes Dr Nawaf.Television interview · France 24Strike on Riyadh: What options for the Saudi-led coalition?11 Oct 2026 Television interview · CNNCNN investigation featuring Dr Nawaf Obaid: Russian satellite intelligence and Iranian targeting16 Sep 2026

Third-party broadcast and print appearances by AURORAH's leadership. Not AURORAH's own analytical evidence — see Evidence & Case Studies.

How an engagement begins

Start with one decision

Tell us the strategic question, region and decision horizon. We will agree the appropriate scope and information-handling arrangements before requesting sensitive detail. The recommended starting point is a scoped 8–10-week WATCH pilot.

Discuss your requirements Explore the WATCH pilot

See what clients receive

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