Publications, international commentary and selected contributions from AURORAH's leadership
Explore Dr Nawaf Obaid's published research, books and commentary across international media. These materials establish his professional record; AURORAH's own analytical evidence is presented separately on the Evidence page.
Selected work
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Showing 83 items, newest first
- Forthcoming book · Helion & CompanySaudi Arabia’s Quiet Victory in South Yemen: How Riyadh Reclaimed the Battlespace through C5ISR/C6ISR Dominance
Forthcoming title listed on his King’s College London profile, on the war in South Yemen.
- Quoted in reporting · Al JazeeraAre Houthis using Russian satellites as Saudi Arabia fends off strikes?
Al Jazeera explainer on the Russian-satellite reports, quoting Dr Nawaf on the AURORAH findings alongside other analysts.
- Quoted in reporting · Associated PressRussian satellites help Iran’s allies strike Saudi Arabia, data and officials say
AP reports AURORAH GeoSignal Intelligence’s analysis of Russian satellite activity over Saudi target areas before and after attacks, and quotes Dr Nawaf.
- Opinion · Sana’a Center, The Yemen ReviewAt What Cost? Moscow, Riyadh, and the Intelligence War in Yemen
Signed article on the intelligence dimension of the war in Yemen, in the Sana’a Center’s quarterly Yemen Review.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsHow do the laws of physics limit Saudi Arabia’s air defence?
Authored commentary on the physical limits of air defence against mixed missile and drone attacks, after the strikes on King Khalid International Airport.
- Quoted in reporting · The NationalSaudi Arabia faces challenge of repeated and simultaneous attacks
The National quotes Dr Nawaf on the limits of air defence against coordinated missile and drone attacks.
- Television interview · France 24Strike on Riyadh: What options for the Saudi-led coalition?
Interview on the Saudi-led coalition’s response options after the Houthi strike on Riyadh’s airport.
- Quoted in reporting · Al JazeeraWhy are Houthi missiles breaking through Saudi Arabia’s air defences?
Al Jazeera explainer quotes Dr Nawaf on the Houthi arsenal and the limits of layered air defence.
- Quoted in reporting · Al JazeeraSaudi Arabia says 12 killed, 300 wounded in Houthi attack on Riyadh airport
Al Jazeera report quotes Dr Nawaf on the Houthi attack on Riyadh’s airport.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsSaudi Arabia vs the Houthis – when strategic patience ends
Authored commentary arguing that Saudi Arabia must now use force to destroy Houthi weapons capabilities.
- Book · Helion & CompanyBefore the First Strike: How the 2026 Iran War Redefined the Intelligence Architecture of Modern Warfare
Forthcoming Helion title collecting and examining contemporaneous intelligence assessments of the 2026 conflict. ISBN 978-1-80672-441-3.
- Opinion · Al JazeeraThe intelligence war is turning against the Houthis
A signed article discussing cross-domain intelligence and referring expressly to Project AURORAH.
- Television interview · Al Jazeera — Inside StoryHow will Saudi Arabia deal with the Houthis?
Panel discussion featuring Dr Nawaf on Saudi–Houthi tensions and the regional security outlook.
- Television extract · Al Jazeera — NewsFeed"There will be a very sizeable Saudi response" to Houthi attacks
Short extract of the same-day Inside Story interview.
- Quoted in reporting · Al Jazeera — news reportingTurkish defence support and Saudi regional security: expert comment
Al Jazeera article quotes Dr Nawaf among several regional security specialists.
- Television interview · CNNCNN investigation featuring Dr Nawaf Obaid: Russian satellite intelligence and Iranian targeting
Dr Nawaf is interviewed in CNN's investigation into Russian satellite intelligence and Iranian targeting of US assets.
- Television interview · Al Jazeera — Inside StoryWhat could stop the Houthis’ advance across Yemen?
Panel discussion on Yemen, Red Sea security and regional conflict dynamics.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsBehind the frontline in Yemen – what Saudi Arabia must do next
- Quoted in reporting · NewsweekSaudi Arabia is becoming ground zero for an even bigger Iran war
Quoted on Saudi Arabia as the centre of gravity of the emerging regional security architecture.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsWhy another Saudi-Houthi war is becoming inevitable
- Radio interview · ABC Australia — Radio National BreakfastNATO-style security pact secured in Riyadh
Five-minute radio interview on the Saudi–Pakistan–Türkiye regional security agreement.
- Opinion · Al JazeeraThe post-American Middle East is beginning to take shape
Opinion piece on emerging regional security arrangements.
- Quoted in reporting · Al JazeeraWill Pakistan-Saudi-Turkiye defence pact change US strategy?
Quoted on how the Iran war accelerated a shift in the regional security order.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsWhat does Russia’s space architecture behind Iran’s precision retaliation look like?
Authored commentary on intelligence integration and orbital reconnaissance.
- Opinion · Al JazeeraWhy Saudi Arabia holds the key to Palestinian statehood
Opinion on diplomacy and regional policy.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsWhy would the Houthis be outmatched in their new campaign against Saudi Arabia?
- Quoted in reporting · ABC NewsTensions over Yemen chokepoint threaten to ignite another theater of US-Iran war
Quoted on the likely Saudi military response to Houthi action at Bab el-Mandeb.
- Opinion · Al JazeeraThe Houthis may soon discover the limits of Saudi strategic patience
Opinion on Gulf security and Yemen.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsAmerican planes leave, American pressure remains
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsWhy Saudi Arabia is building an Aerospace Force
- Opinion · Al JazeeraThe strike that changed the geometry of war
Opinion on changes in the operational geography of military strikes.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsBehind the scenes of Saudi Arabia’s quiet air campaign against Iran
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsWhy did the market not react when the UAE left OPEC?
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsFrance’s nuclear doctrine – a move towards self-reliant security architecture in Europe
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsBeneath the surface – What is Iran threatening with in the Strait of Hormuz?
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsThe Gulf states’ structural problem: Why they cannot become the European Union
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsWhy is Saudi Arabia resilient to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz?
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsThe Iran war will not be decided by missiles, but by shipping routes
- Opinion · Al Jazeera · with Rashid Al-MohanadiIran does not need to close the Strait of Hormuz to disrupt it
Co-authored piece on shipping disruption risk around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsThe Hidden War for Yemen’s Islands
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsWhat does the military imbalance mean for Saudi–UAE relations?
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsHow did Saudi Arabia cause the turnaround in Yemen?
- Opinion · Tomorrow’s AffairsUS–Saudi Agreement: The Kingdom becomes the central stabilising power of the Middle East
- Research · New America · with Joel RayburnMurder by Chain of Command: The Case against Assad
Co-authored investigation concerning accountability and events in the Syrian conflict.
- Opinion · CNNSaudi Arabia just won control of the oil market
- Book · Praeger / BloomsburyThe Failure of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Arab World
Published book analysing the history and political development of the Muslim Brotherhood in Arab countries.
- Opinion · Foreign PolicyShame on the Arabs
- Opinion · Foreign PolicyTrump Will Regret Changing His Mind About Qatar
- Institutional record · Harvard Belfer CenterPolitical Future of the Muslim Brotherhood
University seminar listing on political developments and security.
- Research · Harvard Belfer CenterThe Muslim Brotherhood: A Failure in Political Evolution
Belfer Center research examining the political evolution of the Muslim Brotherhood.
- Institutional record · Harvard Belfer CenterBelfer Center: Visiting Fellow for Intelligence and Defense Projects
Institutional announcement of intelligence and defence research role.
- Television interview · CNN — Fareed Zakaria GPSFareed Zakaria GPS: Saudi Arabia and regional security panel
Archived CNN programme transcript documenting Dr Nawaf’s participation.
- Opinion · The GuardianOnly Saudi Arabia can defeat Isis
- Quoted in reporting · The Washington PostSaudi government policy profile quoting Nawaf Obaid
Historic news story quoting Dr Nawaf, not authored by him.
- Opinion · The Washington PostA new generation of Saudi leaders — and a new foreign policy
- Institutional record · National Council on U.S.–Arab RelationsNawaf Obaid named Distinguished International Affairs Fellow
Institutional appointment announcement and archive of earlier briefing resources.
- Opinion · The New York Times · with Saud Al-SarhanThe Saudis can crush ISIS
- Institutional record · Harvard Belfer CenterSaudi Arabia’s Policy Toward ISIL
University event record on regional security policy.
- Institutional record · Harvard Belfer CenterA New Emerging Saudi Defense Doctrine
University event record on security doctrine.
- Opinion · The Washington PostSaudi Arabia gets forceful on foreign policy
- Recorded discussion · European Council on Foreign Relations / Belfer CenterA New Assertive Saudi Arabia?
Archived discussion of shifts in Saudi regional policy.
- Research · Harvard Belfer CenterThe Long Hot Arab Summer: On the Viability of the Nation State System in the Arab World
- Institutional record · Harvard Belfer CenterSyria and Iran — The View from Saudi Arabia
University event on Middle East regional security.
- Institutional record · Harvard UniversityHarvard Gazette: Obaid Joins Belfer Center
University announcement documenting a Harvard research affiliation.
- Institutional record · Harvard Belfer CenterA Saudi Perspective on the Middle East: The View from Riyadh
University event on Saudi regional policy.
- Opinion · The Washington PostAmid the Arab Spring, a US–Saudi split
- Opinion · Foreign PolicyThe Day of Saudi Collapse Is Not Near
- Opinion · Foreign PolicyThere Will Be No Uprising in Saudi Arabia
- Research · Center for Strategic and International StudiesMeeting the Challenge of a Fragmented Iraq: A Saudi Perspective
Study of the security implications of Iraq’s political situation.
- Institutional record · CSISSaudi Arabia’s Strategic Energy Initiative: Safeguarding Against Supply Disruptions
Archived event and supporting presentation material on energy security.
- Research · Center for Strategic and International Studies · with Anthony H. CordesmanSaudi Counter Terrorism Efforts: The Changing Paramilitary and Domestic Security Apparatus
Research on internal security policy and institutions.
- Book · Praeger · with Anthony H. CordesmanNational Security in Saudi Arabia: Threats, Responses and Challenges
Published co-authored study of national-security challenges and Saudi strategic policy.
- Research · Center for Strategic and International Studies · with Anthony H. CordesmanAl Qaeda in Saudi Arabia
Analysis of militant activity and counter-terrorism.
- Research · Center for Strategic and International Studies · with Anthony H. CordesmanSaudi Militants in Iraq: An Assessment and the Kingdom’s Response
Study of regional militant flows and Saudi policy response.
- Research · Center for Strategic and International Studies · with Nathaniel KernSaudi Arabia’s Upstream and Downstream Expansion Plans
Saudi oil-industry capacity and policy study.
- Research · Center for Strategic and International Studies · with Anthony H. CordesmanGlobal Energy Demand and Capacity Building in Saudi Arabia’s Petroleum Sector
Energy-sector policy and investment analysis.
- Research · Center for Strategic and International Studies · with Anthony H. CordesmanSaudi Internal Security: A Risk Assessment
Saudi internal-security research from Dr Nawaf’s CSIS period.
- Research · Center for Strategic and International Studies · with Anthony H. CordesmanSaudi National Security: Military and Security Services Challenges & Developments
Co-authored background research on military and national security developments.
- Opinion · The Washington PostAl Qaeda’s Bomb Backfire
- Opinion · The Washington PostThe Saudis Fight, Too
- Opinion · The Washington PostSaudi Support, Defined
- Opinion · The Washington PostThe Israeli Flag in Riyadh?
- Book · Washington Institute for Near East Policy / library recordThe Oil Kingdom at 100: Petroleum Policymaking in Saudi Arabia
Historical book on Saudi petroleum policy and strategic energy decisions.
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Links open the original publisher or broadcaster page. Signed commentary expresses the author's own assessments. An interview and its broadcast extract are listed separately but are one appearance.